U.S. equity returns in 2024: Premium performance
AnalysisWe pinpoint five reasons why U.S. equities capped off a banner year in 2024 and why investors were willing to pay for premium valuations. We also offer thoughts on the environment in 2025 and how to approach portfolio positioning.
Read moreThe Fed approaches a new phase of interest rate policy
AnalysisMarkets head lower following a hawkish rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. We discuss the reasons behind the Fed’s shift and if investors really need to fear higher rates caused by stronger growth.
Read moreU.S. productivity renaissance
AnalysisHigher productivity has propelled the U.S. economy ahead of its major peers in recent years, offering a blueprint for other countries and raising the stakes in the global race to harness emergent technologies such as GenAI.
Read moreGlobal Insight 2025 Outlook executive summary: Beyond the horizon
AnalysisWith a second Trump administration in the U.S. eyeing an ambitious agenda and trade tensions coming to the fore, how should investors position portfolios? Our 2025 Outlook examines the issues and opportunities facing economies and markets in 2025 and beyond.
Read moreMarket overview: Equity balancing act
AnalysisIn 2025, global equity markets may be able to add to the remarkable gains of the past two years. That will require economic and earnings pictures that don’t falter.
Read moreThe “Unstoppables”
AnalysisFour powerful trends involving game-changing innovations and demographic changes are set to play out in the global economy over the coming decades. We believe they can provide an attractive way to plug investment portfolios into the future.
Read moreGlobal Insight 2025 Outlook: United Kingdom
AnalysisAmid efforts to stimulate growth in the face of economic challenges, we see selective long-term opportunities in both equities and fixed income.
Read moreGlobal Insight 2025 Outlook: Europe
AnalysisTrade and internal tensions are likely to play key roles in 2025, as potential tariffs and political disruptions cloud the picture.
Read moreGlobal Insight 2025 Outlook: Canada
AnalysisDespite potential headwinds, we are generally constructive on Canadian markets, though we expect less outperformance in credit.
Read moreGlobal Insight 2025 Outlook: United States
AnalysisA more complex equity landscape and the potential for Fed policy shifts mean investors will need to be nimble in 2025.
Read moreGlobal Insight 2025 Outlook: Asia Pacific
AnalysisAsia’s equity outlook will likely depend on U.S. tariffs, China’s stimulus and Japan’s structural changes. Stable fundamentals support cautious optimism for investment-grade bonds.
Read morePondering a U.S. policy potpourri
AnalysisHow can investors separate the policy changes that are likely to really matter for the economy from those that get a lot of press but may not have the most traction?
Read moreFed rate cuts for what?
AnalysisThe Fed has cut policy rates by 75 basis points since September only to see longer-term Treasury yields and mortgage rates increase by the same degree. We take a closer look at this divergence and its implications.
Read moreU.S. presidential election: Back to the future
AnalysisIn a historic political comeback, Donald Trump has again won the presidency. We look at the policies like taxes and tariffs shaping the investment climate. With political polarisation high, don’t let emotions cloud your investment decisions.
Read moreDebunking debt disaster
AnalysisMyths may be important to folklore, but they’re not helpful in finance. We look at the facts behind some of the common myths surrounding the U.S. national debt.
Read moreThe end of China’s challenging chapter?
AnalysisChina’s economy is struggling. A coordinated stimulus to curb the crippling housing crisis and support local governments is being announced. We explore the measures undertaken and contemplated and their potential implications for portfolios.
Read moreBigger BRICS: Building a multipolar world?
AnalysisOur ongoing “Worlds Apart” series looks at the just-concluded BRICS summit and how the group aims to rebalance the global order. We believe the shift to a multipolar, more fragmented world argues for viewing portfolio allocations through a different lens.
Read moreInflation moving to the back burner, but still simmering
AnalysisCentral banks’ inflation targets are in sight, but not all price trends have normalised. Inflation isn’t the headache it was, but investors should keep it in mind in their asset allocation decisions.
Read moreExploring the impacts of AI and GenAI across industries
AnalysisContinuing our examination of artificial intelligence and its potential to shape the investment landscape, we look at the specific impacts AI may have – or is already having – across a wide range of industries.
Read moreRecession scorecard update: Stop and start
AnalysisThere have been no recent scorecard rating changes. However, two of the seven indicators have failed to move in the anticipated direction over the past month.
Read moreThe price of Fed rate cut success is steep, but not too steep
AnalysisThe Fed has finally aggressively lowered interest rates. While a steeper yield curve reflects the market’s optimism that rate cuts will shore up the economic outlook, further steepness could be a sign the Fed will cut rates deeply, likely due to a recession.
Read moreDraghi: Europe, time to press ahead
AnalysisMario Draghi recently submitted a comprehensive report addressing the EU’s loss of competitiveness. We examine the feasibility of his ambitious plan and the potential implications for portfolio positioning.
Read moreThe Fed’s big bang rate cut
AnalysisAfter biding its time, the Fed kicked off its monetary easing cycle with a strong start out of the rate cut gates. While investors may harbour concerns the Fed is getting ahead of itself, we highlight why we’re encouraged by the Fed’s proactive move.
Read moreEconomic impacts of non-economic policies
AnalysisThe economic environment could be in for an about-face. We look at what investors should be focusing on, beyond the same old same old, in this election year.
Read moreHarris and Trump on the issues
AnalysisA gulf exists between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on policy issues. We address key policy differences that matter most to the economy and stock market.
Read moreCredit where credit is due?
AnalysisDespite signs of a slowing economy, corporate bond issuance kicked off the month at a record pace. We look at how the market has absorbed the new debt and what factors are likely to drive bond performance ahead.
Read moreFed rate cuts on the horizon
AnalysisAs U.S. rate cuts near, history shows stocks and bonds often perform well after the Fed starts easing cycles, with equities showing greater variability.
Read moreNo free rein: The realities of U.S. presidential power
AnalysisWhile the U.S. president certainly has great influence, investors shouldn’t let election noise get in the way of sound portfolio management.
Read moreGenAI: Enablers and adopters
AnalysisGenAI will likely have far-ranging repercussions on the economy, sectors, and business functions. We look at the potential impact and explore investment strategies we expect to benefit from the new era.
Read moreNorth American labour markets: Past the point of no return?
AnalysisRecession risks have risen slightly as labour markets in the U.S. and Canada have cooled.
Read moreNagging questions facing equity markets
AnalysisFour unresolved issues related to the selloff stand to hold sway over stocks.
Read moreGlobal equity: Offence still on the field; defence ready for the call
AnalysisThe market pullback will take time to play out. Planning for an eventual shift to defence beats a “hope for the best” approach.
Read moreThe Fed waits, but is it too late?
AnalysisAs expected, the Fed held off on a rate cut this week. But as policymakers await more economic data before a likely September rate cut, the data may already be signalling the central bank is too late.
Read moreVideo – GenAI: The next frontier of artificial intelligence and innovation
AnalysisRBC’s AI software analyst enthusiastically talks about how GenAI has leapfrogged traditional AI tools and tells us what excites him about the technology today and its future potential.
Read moreWhat dueling data and the Fed’s dual mandate mean for interest rate cuts
AnalysisBut U.S. labour market data pointing in different directions, we sift through the mixed messages and the impact on the Fed’s rate cut plans.
Read moreInside the S&P 500: Time to pass the baton?
AnalysisWhile mega-cap tech stocks have dominated U.S. equity performance so far this year, recently the rest of the market has been trying to take the baton. We discuss the main factors needed to make a clean handoff.
Read moreWeaving the threads of U.S. equity outperformance
AnalysisWhile AI and the Magnificent 7 have been exceedingly visible in their leadership, we spotlight two other trends with a clear impact on portfolio performance.
Read moreU.S. debt dilemma: No quick fixes and no catastrophes
AnalysisThe federal government’s debt has doubled since 2015 – and shows no signs of turning around.
Read moreThe fine, frustrating U.S. equity rally
AnalysisThe U.S. stock market rally continues to outdo itself. But several factors make for a more nuanced narrative. We assess the backdrop framing the rally and how to position equity portfolios.
Read moreRedder: Updating our recession scorecard
AnalysisMidway through 2024, changes in our U.S. Recession Scorecard signal rising economic risks for equity investors in the second half of the year.
Read moreLongevity: How science is extending lifespans
AnalysisAmid an innovation revolution in biotech that stands to not only transform our lives but also impact investment portfolios, what should investors be looking for?
Read moreA return to yield curve normalcy?
AnalysisThe ongoing yield curve inversion appears out of line with record equity markets and robust commodity pricing. We look at some reasons investors are accepting lower yields on longer-maturity bonds.
Read moreState of economic play
AnalysisMore-demanding valuations appear to signal investors have become more confident of a “soft landing” outcome. We provide an update on the macro environment and its implications for portfolios.
Read moreLongevity: Cracking the ageing code
AnalysisScience is developing ways to slow, stall, and possibly even reverse ageing. We explore the most promising advances and the link between scientific breakthroughs and intriguing investments.
Read moreBoC-Fed divergence: In it for the long haul?
AnalysisThe BoC lowered its policy rate, and we think it will continue to cut rates sooner and faster than the Fed. We discuss why fixed income investors outside the U.S. should consider U.S. exposure where rates are likely to remain higher for longer.
Read moreLongevity: How science is extending healthspans
AnalysisAmid an innovation revolution in biotech that stands to not only transform our lives but also impact investment portfolios, what should investors be looking for?
Read moreGold: More than meets the eye
AnalysisIn a conversation with RBC Capital Markets, LLC Commodity Strategist Christopher Louney, we look at aspects driving the gold rally and explain how world events and policy shifts could impact its prospects.
Read moreThe Fed adjusts its focus, but the rate outlook remains blurry
AnalysisThe Fed keeps playing down upside risks to inflation, but did it just start playing up downside risks to labour markets? Ahead of key jobs data, how sensitive might the Fed be to any labour market weakness?
Read moreEnergy stocks: A hedge to rising geopolitical risk
AnalysisOil’s rally is fueling an intriguing opportunity. We contend the global oil sector is benefiting from improved fundamentals and exposure in equity portfolios can act as an offset to geopolitical risk.
Read moreDon’t fight (or fear) the Fed
AnalysisThe U.S. central bank is an incredibly powerful institution that can exert influence on essentially any U.S. dollar-denominated asset. However, we believe the Fed is also widely misunderstood.
Read more2024 earnings: The likely convergence of the “haves and have nots”
AnalysisAs all eyes focus on Q1 earnings results, we think the full-year earnings growth trajectory is more important. Growth rates for the Magnificent 7 and non-Mag 7 stocks are expected to converge, but some earnings risks remain.
Read moreThe metamorphosis of European equities
AnalysisNo longer wan and listless, we think European equities are emerging from their chrysalis with newfound potential. We look at how the investment story is transforming and why investors should take a fresh look at the asset class.
Read moreHigh expectations for the U.S. equity market
AnalysisMost major equity markets have moved to new high ground, propelled by expectations for interest rate cuts. But we are not out of the woods yet.
Read moreThe importance of focusing on time horizon
AnalysisToo often, we find investors focusing on what the press puts before them instead of concentrating on issues relevant to their goals. We explain why investment time horizon should be a key focus of portfolio thinking.
Read moreCentral banks are off to the races
AnalysisWhile the Fed’s meeting didn’t deliver much that was new, it at least eased concerns that rate cuts could be delayed. Other central banks grabbed the spotlight, with potentially significant ramifications.
Read moreIs the U.S. equity market getting bubbly again?
AnalysisA growing chorus on Wall Street is warning an AI-led bubble may be forming. While a near-term pullback can’t be ruled out, we argue this is not Tech Bubble 2.0.
Read moreKey things to know about U.S. elections
AnalysisAs presidential elections have become more contentious, perceptions have risen that the stock market’s fate can hang in the balance depending on who wins. There are four principles investors should keep in mind.
Read moreA worldwide wave of elections
Analysis2024 marks a case of rare planetary alignment, with close to half the world’s population heading to the polls. While the brightest spotlight will fall on the U.S. election, we focus on elections beyond the U.S. and why they matter to investors.
Read moreShaking up corporate Japan
AnalysisThe Nikkei 225 recently climbed past its all-time closing high. We explore the factors behind investors’ enthusiasm and explain why a disappointing macroeconomic backdrop is not seen as an obstacle.
Read moreAn evolving investment landscape
AnalysisWe survey the macro factors shaping the global economy, and their implications for portfolio positioning as 2024 unfolds.
Read morePositioning for inflation shocks
AnalysisGeopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty are driving inflation risks. We look at the potential role of fixed income in portfolio positioning.
Read moreThe death of (traditional) value
AnalysisWe think investors willing to expand their traditional investment toolset to incorporate extra-financial factors stand to reap superior returns over time.
Read moreGrowth stocks regained investors’ love in 2023
AnalysisAfter growth stocks brought heartbreak in 2022, the growth style of investing was at the top of the leaderboard in 2023. Can the rebound continue?
Read moreAre banks facing a real estate reckoning?
AnalysisDespite the hard realities of mounting losses on real estate loans, we think a fair dose of hyperbole is going around. We dissect the problem before arguing the overall U.S. banking system is healthy and able to weather any volatility ahead.
Read moreWhen a Fed push results in a market shove
AnalysisFed Chair Jerome Powell tried to push back on near-term rate cut expectations, but markets shoved right back. Pricing suggests markets are concerned that if the Fed waits too long to cut rates policymakers will only have to cut them more.
Read moreGlobal Insight 2024 Outlook: United Kingdom
AnalysisStagflation risks and a likely general election suggest a volatile environment in 2024.
Read moreVideo: The de-dollarisation dilemma
AnalysisAs trade and geopolitical tensions persist and global trade becomes more fragmented, will the U.S. dollar continue to be the global reserve currency of choice?
Read moreMission critical: Securing supply of critical minerals
AnalysisCritical minerals are the building blocks of most modern technologies. We explore the drive for resilient supply chains and weigh the portfolio implications.
Read moreWorlds apart: Risks and opportunities as deglobalisation looms
AnalysisWith trade relations more fragmented and the potential for a great power rivalry between the U.S. and China, investors need to be ready for a new paradigm.
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