Global insights from RBC


Read the latest news and analysis from Royal Bank of Canada

Fed rate cuts on the horizon

Analysis

As U.S. rate cuts near, history shows stocks and bonds often perform well after the Fed starts easing cycles, with equities showing greater variability.

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No free rein: The realities of U.S. presidential power

Analysis

While the U.S. president certainly has great influence, investors shouldn’t let election noise get in the way of sound portfolio management.

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GenAI: Enablers and adopters

Analysis

GenAI will likely have far-ranging repercussions on the economy, sectors, and business functions. We look at the potential impact and explore investment strategies we expect to benefit from the new era.

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North American labour markets: Past the point of no return?

Analysis

Recession risks have risen slightly as labour markets in the U.S. and Canada have cooled.

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Nagging questions facing equity markets

Analysis

Four unresolved issues related to the selloff stand to hold sway over stocks.

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Global equity: Offence still on the field; defence ready for the call

Analysis

The market pullback will take time to play out. Planning for an eventual shift to defence beats a “hope for the best” approach.

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The Fed waits, but is it too late?

Analysis

As expected, the Fed held off on a rate cut this week. But as policymakers await more economic data before a likely September rate cut, the data may already be signalling the central bank is too late.

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Video – GenAI: The next frontier of artificial intelligence and innovation

Analysis

RBC’s AI software analyst enthusiastically talks about how GenAI has leapfrogged traditional AI tools and tells us what excites him about the technology today and its future potential.

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What dueling data and the Fed’s dual mandate mean for interest rate cuts

Analysis

But U.S. labour market data pointing in different directions, we sift through the mixed messages and the impact on the Fed’s rate cut plans.

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Inside the S&P 500: Time to pass the baton?

Analysis

While mega-cap tech stocks have dominated U.S. equity performance so far this year, recently the rest of the market has been trying to take the baton. We discuss the main factors needed to make a clean handoff.

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Weaving the threads of U.S. equity outperformance

Analysis

While AI and the Magnificent 7 have been exceedingly visible in their leadership, we spotlight two other trends with a clear impact on portfolio performance.

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U.S. debt dilemma: No quick fixes and no catastrophes

Analysis

The federal government’s debt has doubled since 2015 – and shows no signs of turning around.

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The fine, frustrating U.S. equity rally

Analysis

The U.S. stock market rally continues to outdo itself. But several factors make for a more nuanced narrative. We assess the backdrop framing the rally and how to position equity portfolios.

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Redder: Updating our recession scorecard

Analysis

Midway through 2024, changes in our U.S. Recession Scorecard signal rising economic risks for equity investors in the second half of the year.

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Longevity: How science is extending lifespans

Analysis

Amid an innovation revolution in biotech that stands to not only transform our lives but also impact investment portfolios, what should investors be looking for?

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A return to yield curve normalcy?

Analysis

The ongoing yield curve inversion appears out of line with record equity markets and robust commodity pricing. We look at some reasons investors are accepting lower yields on longer-maturity bonds.

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State of economic play

Analysis

More-demanding valuations appear to signal investors have become more confident of a “soft landing” outcome. We provide an update on the macro environment and its implications for portfolios.

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Longevity: Cracking the ageing code

Analysis

Science is developing ways to slow, stall, and possibly even reverse ageing. We explore the most promising advances and the link between scientific breakthroughs and intriguing investments.

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BoC-Fed divergence: In it for the long haul?

Analysis

The BoC lowered its policy rate, and we think it will continue to cut rates sooner and faster than the Fed. We discuss why fixed income investors outside the U.S. should consider U.S. exposure where rates are likely to remain higher for longer.

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Longevity: How science is extending healthspans

Analysis

Amid an innovation revolution in biotech that stands to not only transform our lives but also impact investment portfolios, what should investors be looking for?

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Gold: More than meets the eye

Analysis

In a conversation with RBC Capital Markets, LLC Commodity Strategist Christopher Louney, we look at aspects driving the gold rally and explain how world events and policy shifts could impact its prospects.

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The Fed adjusts its focus, but the rate outlook remains blurry

Analysis

The Fed keeps playing down upside risks to inflation, but did it just start playing up downside risks to labour markets? Ahead of key jobs data, how sensitive might the Fed be to any labour market weakness?

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Energy stocks: A hedge to rising geopolitical risk

Analysis

Oil’s rally is fueling an intriguing opportunity. We contend the global oil sector is benefiting from improved fundamentals and exposure in equity portfolios can act as an offset to geopolitical risk.

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Don’t fight (or fear) the Fed

Analysis

The U.S. central bank is an incredibly powerful institution that can exert influence on essentially any U.S. dollar-denominated asset. However, we believe the Fed is also widely misunderstood.

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2024 earnings: The likely convergence of the “haves and have nots”

Analysis

As all eyes focus on Q1 earnings results, we think the full-year earnings growth trajectory is more important. Growth rates for the Magnificent 7 and non-Mag 7 stocks are expected to converge, but some earnings risks remain.

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The metamorphosis of European equities

Analysis

No longer wan and listless, we think European equities are emerging from their chrysalis with newfound potential. We look at how the investment story is transforming and why investors should take a fresh look at the asset class.

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High expectations for the U.S. equity market

Analysis

Most major equity markets have moved to new high ground, propelled by expectations for interest rate cuts. But we are not out of the woods yet.

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The importance of focusing on time horizon

Analysis

Too often, we find investors focusing on what the press puts before them instead of concentrating on issues relevant to their goals. We explain why investment time horizon should be a key focus of portfolio thinking.

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Central banks are off to the races

Analysis

While the Fed’s meeting didn’t deliver much that was new, it at least eased concerns that rate cuts could be delayed. Other central banks grabbed the spotlight, with potentially significant ramifications.

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Is the U.S. equity market getting bubbly again?

Analysis

A growing chorus on Wall Street is warning an AI-led bubble may be forming. While a near-term pullback can’t be ruled out, we argue this is not Tech Bubble 2.0.

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Key things to know about U.S. elections

Analysis

As presidential elections have become more contentious, perceptions have risen that the stock market’s fate can hang in the balance depending on who wins. There are four principles investors should keep in mind.

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A worldwide wave of elections

Analysis

2024 marks a case of rare planetary alignment, with close to half the world’s population heading to the polls. While the brightest spotlight will fall on the U.S. election, we focus on elections beyond the U.S. and why they matter to investors.

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Shaking up corporate Japan

Analysis

The Nikkei 225 recently climbed past its all-time closing high. We explore the factors behind investors’ enthusiasm and explain why a disappointing macroeconomic backdrop is not seen as an obstacle.

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An evolving investment landscape

Analysis

We survey the macro factors shaping the global economy, and their implications for portfolio positioning as 2024 unfolds.

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Positioning for inflation shocks

Analysis

Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty are driving inflation risks. We look at the potential role of fixed income in portfolio positioning.

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The death of (traditional) value

Analysis

We think investors willing to expand their traditional investment toolset to incorporate extra-financial factors stand to reap superior returns over time.

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Growth stocks regained investors’ love in 2023

Analysis

After growth stocks brought heartbreak in 2022, the growth style of investing was at the top of the leaderboard in 2023. Can the rebound continue?

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Are banks facing a real estate reckoning?

Analysis

Despite the hard realities of mounting losses on real estate loans, we think a fair dose of hyperbole is going around. We dissect the problem before arguing the overall U.S. banking system is healthy and able to weather any volatility ahead.

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When a Fed push results in a market shove

Analysis

Fed Chair Jerome Powell tried to push back on near-term rate cut expectations, but markets shoved right back. Pricing suggests markets are concerned that if the Fed waits too long to cut rates policymakers will only have to cut them more.

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Global Insight 2024 Outlook: United Kingdom

Analysis

Stagflation risks and a likely general election suggest a volatile environment in 2024.

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Video: The de-dollarisation dilemma

Analysis

As trade and geopolitical tensions persist and global trade becomes more fragmented, will the U.S. dollar continue to be the global reserve currency of choice?

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Mission critical: Securing supply of critical minerals

Analysis

Critical minerals are the building blocks of most modern technologies. We explore the drive for resilient supply chains and weigh the portfolio implications.

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Worlds apart: Risks and opportunities as deglobalisation looms

Analysis

With trade relations more fragmented and the potential for a great power rivalry between the U.S. and China, investors need to be ready for a new paradigm.

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