The value of investments and any income from them can fall and you may get back less than you invested.

Market Review December 2019

Share

Global equity markets rallied in November as evidence gathered that we are at the beginning of a mini-cycle economic upturn, driven largely by the previous easing in monetary conditions.

The US market lead this rally. The outperformance appeared to be driven by the falling odds of Elizabeth Warren, and her market unfriendly policies, winning the Democratic party nomination for next year’s election. The late entrance of former New York city mayor Michael Bloomberg and the improved polling of Pete Buttigieg, the favoured candidate of Silicon Valley given his tech friendly views, has seen the chances of a centrist Democratic candidate winning the nomination spike dramatically which has coincided with the recent outperformance of US equities. There were also clearer signs that the US housing market remains healthy, which should allow the US economy to continue its record setting expansion.

The trade war with China remains the wild card, with the potential to challenge the economic growth recovery and disrupt the positive momentum in the equity market. There was a slight lull in developments in this regard in November with news flow likely pick up around the 15th December, the date the US is scheduled to put 15% tariffs on $160bn in Chinese consumer goods. We believe an extension to this deadline is most likely as Trump needs the economy to be in good shape heading into next year’s election and therefore a de-escalation of the trade tensions is in his interest.

Campaigning ahead of the December 12th General election dominated domestic headlines throughout the month. The initial YouGov MRP poll, the best model in the 2017 election, predicted a strong (68 seat) Conservative majority. Sterling strengthened on the news as, if accurate, this would make a messy, no-deal, Brexit even less likely as it would reduce the influence of the Eurosceptic ERP wing of the Tory party.

Our outlook for global equity markets is relatively optimistic. We expect a cyclical upturn in the global economy supported by the easy monetary conditions to spur an improvement in corporate profits and ultimately a continuation of the positive equity market momentum. The clouds of Brexit and the US China trade war are likely to remain a source of significant uncertainty for some time, however there is the opportunity for incrementally better news on both in December and into the new year.

The value of investments and any income from them can fall and you may get back less than you invested.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

No investment is suitable in all cases and if you have any doubts as to an investment's suitability then you should contact us.

The information contained in this document is believed to be reliable and accurate, but without further investigation cannot be warranted as to accuracy or completeness.

If you invest in currencies other than your own, fluctuations in currency value will mean that the value of your investment will move independently of the underlying asset

The opinions expressed in this publication are not necessarily the views held throughout Brewin Dolphin Ltd.

You are entering the financial advisers' section UK legal information

Important Information

Please read this page before proceeding, as it explains certain legal and regulatory restrictions applicable to the information in this section of the website.

By clicking the 'Accept'/'Decline' buttons at the end of the page, you acknowledge that the important information below has been brought to your attention.

This section of the website is intended for residents of the United Kingdom only and any dispute or action arising out of the website shall be determined in accordance with English laws. Under no circumstances should any information or any part of it be copied, reproduced or redistributed.

The information provided in this section of the website is intended solely for investment advisers, accountants, solicitors and any other professional financial intermediaries who are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This information must not be distributed to, or relied upon by, private clients and the general public.

This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business, as defined by the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, in any jurisdiction other than the United Kingdom. Investors who are resident in or citizens of countries other than the United Kingdom may be subject to local restrictions. In particular, no offer or invitation is made to any US persons (being residents of the United States of America or partnerships or corporations organised under the laws of the United States of America or any state, territory or possession thereof), who are excluded from the products or services offered in this site.

Brewin Dolphin Limited is registered in England and Wales under company number 2135876 with its registered office at 12 Smithfield Street, London EC1A 9BD. Brewin Dolphin Limited is a member of the London Stock Exchange and authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (Financial Services Register reference number 124444).

The information contained in this section of the website has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable and accurate at the date of publication, but without further investigation this cannot be warranted. We are not responsible for the content of external websites that are linked from our webpages. Any opinions and comment expressed in this website are not necessarily the views held throughout Brewin Dolphin Limited. All opinions and comments are subject to change without notice.

The value of investments and any income generated may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. Investors may get back less than they have invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Quoted yields are not guaranteed. Different funds have different levels of risk. Changes in currency exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of investments. Interest rate fluctuations are likely to affect the capital value of investments within bond funds.

We or a connected person may have positions in or options on the securities mentioned herein or may buy, sell or offer to make a purchase or sale of such securities from time to time. In addition we reserve the right to act as principal or agent with regard to the sale or purchase of any security mentioned in this document. For further information, please refer to our conflicts policy which is available on request or can be accessed here.

This website uses cookies to store information on your computer. These cookies contain no personal or confidential information and we will not attempt to identify you from this information. They are important because they allow us to make your website experience better and they also help us to monitor how people are using our website and make improvements appropriately. To find out more, please visit our Privacy and Cookie Policy.

Please click below to confirm that you are a UK investment adviser or a professional financial intermediary, and that you have read and agreed to the important information above.

By clicking accept below you confirm that you have read the important information and wish to continue to this site.

Accept Decline