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    • 14 May 2012
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Market tactics

• For Greece it's play ball or make the call!

  Tomorrow’s expected confirmation of recession for the eurozone as a whole will add little new to the growth dynamic now in play.

• US payrolls show modest loss of momentum

  Although the headline figure for the US non-farm payrolls came in below expectations, those of previous months were revised upwards by some 53,000.

• America has its own ‘growth pact’ - it’s called the Fed!

  Europe, including the UK, faces the headwinds of fiscal austerity and stiffer banking regulation. Japan is struggling - still - with deflation and Wall Street is backing the Fed.

• Europe staggers and reflation drives Wall Street

  Europe’s economic malaise merely increases the pressure to revisit budget deficit targets and so the uncertainty that has arisen is likely to dominate market sentiment for a while.

• Europe in turmoil but improved US earnings come as a big surprise

  The economic activity for the eurozone is expected to contract this year and grow by less than 1 percent next year.

• Can Wall Street go it alone despite Spain’s woes?

  For the eurozone, recession is expected this year and less than 1 percent growth is expected next year.

• You wouldn’t know it but there’s a bull market going on

  Wall Street has been defying expectations with a bull market supported by an economy where prospects are looking up.

• A breather from Wall Street’s breadth - a pause that refreshes

  The crisis in the Eurozone is ‘now almost over’. Certainly equity markets have been prepared to buy into the prospect. But only up to a point! And that point has been reached.

• Wall Street’s breadth reflects Main Street’s recovery

  26 March 2012 - The action on the Wall Street is spectacular! Especially the S&P 500’s climb to a new post-Lehman crisis high, equity market and the performance of the second liners.

• Super yields

  20 March 2012- Following last week’s sudden jolt to the US Treasury market, yields shot further upwards yesterday.

• A chapter ends but the bigger drama continues

  12 March 2012 - The question for equity markets is whether the ‘crisis’ associated with debt sustainability might give way to positive developments elsewhere.

• German numbers go from Brat to Wurst

  22 February 2012 - European Purchasing Managers Indices for Germany suggest business activity is slowing, whilst China improves modestly.

• A deal not quite done - but the bet is on!

  13 February 2012 - ‘We have to sacrifice a lot so as not to sacrifice everything’. It was one among many of the pleas from Greece’s leaders over the weekend.

• A justifiable re-rating for equity markets...

  6 February 2012 - Another banking crisis now seems less likely and the sovereign debt crisis may at last be on the road to resolution.

• A week that might be action packed - for markets!

  30 January 2012 - The S&P 500 has the look of an index intent on taking out last year’s high. It just needs more positive news flow to do the trick. This week could bring some of it.

• Bad news - have equity markets had their fill of it?

  19 January 2012 - if the earnings prove to be at least as good as expected, Wall Street can be expected to lead equity markets up.

• Equities are overbought so mind the consolidation

  11 January 2012 - If sentiment towards the banks is in the process of changing, it is also likely to be changing for equity markets - for the better.

• Equity markets set bad news aside and wait for earnings

  16 January 2012 - the likelihood now is that the US economy surprises on the upside this year thus offering a promising set of prospects for earnings.

• Amid good news and bad news equity markets wait for a lead

  9 January 2012 - There was little wrong with last Friday’s employment numbers. Not only were they a good deal better than expected but they also left little doubt about the underlying...

• 2012 - bad but not all bad and maybe better than expected

  5 January 2012 - Economic Outlook: read what Mike Lenhoff, Chief Strategist at Brewin Dolphin thinks about the year ahead. Brightness in darkness, Japan, Developing World, Europe, ECB Action...

• 2012 – a year of limited gains for equity markets

  19 December 2011 - Without putting too fine a point on it, the economic outlook for next year is lacking in promise – with one big exception...

• A eurozone deal - now markets await the detail

  12 December 2011 - not only with the markets but also with the ECB, the process of adjustment and timeline towards the rules on fiscal governance need to be spelled out.

• The Lady is not for turning and the markets think she will rule

  5 December 2011 - momentum is being lost in the developing world. While China will feel the impact on global trade of Europe’s likely recession, the loss of momentum is not all down to the eurozone.

• Equity markets are oversold and starved of good news flow

  28 November 2011 - The equity markets could be easily supported by a swing out of bond markets and should enjoy a decent rebound though, at this stage, it is unlikely to be much more.

• Now bunds flounder!

  23 November 2011 - Germany’s Debt Agency blamed nervous markets. Of the 6 billion euro issuance the Debt Agency intended to get away, the take-up for this next benchmark bond was for 3.9 billion.

• Equity markets flounder with a more uncertain earnings outlook

  22 November 2011 - Stress in euro funding markets has been building for some while but it has been mounting for dollar funding as well.

• ECB does what it must but not with the right noises

  18 November 2011 - Unsettling as it is, the intraday volatility in equity markets is a distraction. The key now is earnings...

• Markets force the issue with Papandreou and Berlusconi

  7 November 2011 - Anyone looking for a quick fix on eurozone fundamentals can take it from Angela Merkel that it’s not going to happen. As she said over the weekend, a solution to the debt...

• Can equity markets retain their gains?

  31 October 2011 - It was a busy week for economic data. The one which will focus attention on how the US economy is stacking up for the final quarter of the year.

• Better to travel than arrive but hope there’s more travelling

  27 October 2011 - Eurozone leaders have demonstrated a sense of unity and determination in delivering on what is needed to tackle the issue of debt sustainability...

• Time for China to weigh in with policy easing

  14 October 2011 - While the eurozone is now getting on with it, the developing world is moving with speed and, in contrast to the developed world, has plenty of scope to stimulate economic activity.

• News moves markets and it’s time for good news

  10 October 2011 - The push by eurozone leaders, eurozone finance ministers, the EC and the EBA, to engage in a new constructive phase to deal with the eurozone sovereign debt crisis...

• BoE and ECB should ease! What’s to hold them back?

  3 October 2011 - Eurozone finance ministers meet today in Luxembourg to discuss Greece. It is doubtful though that the finance ministers will be galvanised into action.

• A reformed EFSF would be positive for equity markets

  26 September 2011 - The IMF meeting in Washington concluded with comments to the effect that eurozone officials are now working to establish how the European Financial Stability Facility...

• Inaction by Eurozone’s Finance Ministers gets a thumbs down

  19 September 2011 - Inaction by Eurozone’s Finance Ministers gets a thumbs down Actions may speak louder than words but, as the week gets underway, equity markets are giving inaction the thumbs down.

• More on what bond markets are telling us

  12 September 2011 - Equity markets head into the week with a rocky start following Jurgen Stark’s resignation from the ECB on Friday over differences in respect of the ECB’s...

• Focusing US fiscal and monetary policy on where it counts

  5 September 2011 - After last Friday’s disappointing non-farm payrolls, equity markets will view even more critically President Obama’s address to the nation on Thursday.

• Revisiting the dark side - with Warren Buffet!

  23 August 2011 - When the financial system lost its capacity to function after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, it was counterparty risk that left the banks high and dry without access to funding.

• 2% bond yields or 4% dividend yields?

  19 August 2011 - Measured from this year’s peak in February, global equity markets, using the FTSE All-World Index, have seen a drop of some 18 percent to their low point reached last week.

• A judgement call in a crisis of confidence

  11 August 2011 - Among issues occupying equity markets, two have been especially troubling. The eurozone sovereign debt crisis has been troubling for some while.

• Testing conviction in a crisis of confidence

  9 August 2011 - Value and fundamentals may not count for much in a crisis of confidence but, for investors with a strategic focus, that is when they matter most.

• Bottom fishing with the one hand but holding off with the other

  8 August 2011 - Last Friday Standard & Poor’s took away the triple A credit rating from US Treasuries. Earlier this year the rating agency served notice on the US Government...

• What catalyst for the crisis of confidence?

  5 August 2011 - As with much of last year, equity markets this year have been shackled by the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis but, unlike last year, the siege in debt markets has broadened...

• US budget deal - cue for a return to the ‘risk-on’ trade

  1 August 2011 - Markets start the week probably more reconciled than before to the prospect that, even with an agreement on budget cuts and the extension of the debt ceiling...

• Value and earnings make equities a better buy than bonds

  25 July 2011 - Bond and equity markets start another week with President Obama and the Republicans still gridlocked, deadlocked, stalemated and log jammed.

• Faster top line growth pulls up the bottom line

  18 July 2011 - Equity markets have gone nowhere this year meaning also that they have been reluctant to give up much ground. They have traded sideways in a narrow channel...

• It’s easy to be bearish but earnings could still surprise

  11 July 2011 - Market Tactics - 11 July 2011 - It’s easy to be bearish but earnings could still surprise on the upside.

• Equity markets walk a Greek tightrope

  27 June 2011 - This week is crunch time for Mr Papandreou, his austerity measures and maybe the markets too.

• There is support for equity markets in the midst of dreariness

  21 June 2011 - What equity markets need is a bit of good news or even some relief from the sheer dreariness of the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis and Greece’s financial odyssey.

• Where’s the loss of momentum in the earnings estimates?

  20 June 2011 - Just about all that was conclusive about this weekend’s talks by the eurozone finance ministers on financial aid for Greece...

• Wall Street pushed into an oversold condition

  13 June 2011 - Equity markets start the week where they left off last week, that is, with doubts prevailing as to whether we shall see a sustainable expansion.

• A loss of recovery momentum

  6 June 2011 - Not only was last week’s economic news disappointing but also, in being so widespread, it confirmed the loss of recovery momentum behind the global economy.

• Markets focus on short term loss of momentum

  23 May 2011 - The economy is continuing to slow. The bond markets start the week with little need for a lead on where to go next.

• Worries limit upside for equity markets

  16 May 2011 - Equity markets start the week where they left off last week, with a focus on a loss of momentum in the global economy.

• Dow Jones Transport Index finds its confident stride

  11 May 2011 - Wall Street remains focused on the growing prospect of a sustainable expansion. The US economy appears to be in the process of regaining momentum.

• Equity markets try to find their confident stride

  9 May 2011 - Equity markets have been reluctant to give up much ground. They have been overbought and are due for some consolidation, but they appear determined to take their cue from the good news.

• Equity markets in need of a lead

  18 April 2011 - Equity markets start the week with plenty to focus on and maybe with a touch of apprehension. In the US the earnings season moves into full swing.

• Bonds focus on inflation as equities get a fix on earnings

  11 April 2011 - Bond and equity markets start the week with oil prices having continued their run to higher highs for the year.

• Bonds eye exit strategies as equities regain momentum

  5 April 2011 - Equity markets, notably the developed markets, start the quarter having reclaimed most of what they lost in the sell-off from February’s top.

• Equity markets await key figures

  28 March 2011 - While the markets are not likely to lose sight of the developments in Japan and the Middle East and North Africa, they appear to be re-focusing on fundamentals

• Japanese equities a tactical buy but oil price a brake globally

  21 March 2011 - If the worst of the crisis is over with the Fukushima reactors, the risk of a meltdown is diminishing, this should help equity markets rebound and Japan especially.